Prediction or Prophecy?
The Boundaries of Economic Foreknowledge and Their Socio-Political Consequences
Samenvatting
Gregor Betz explores the following questions: Where are the limits of economics, in particular the limits of economic foreknowledge? Are macroeconomic forecasts credible predictions or mere prophecies and what would this imply for the way economic policy decisions are taken? Is rational economic decision making possible without forecasting at all?
Specificaties
Inhoudsopgave
A historical perspective on economic forecast performance
Forecast performance in natural sciences
Predictability of complex systems
Expectations and reflexiveness
Sensitive dependence on initial conditions
Experiment and simulation
Unrealistic assumption explanations
Consequences for traditional decision making