Risk Analysis – Socio–technical and Industrial Systems
Socio–technical and Industrial Systems
Samenvatting
An overview of the methods used for risk analysis in a variety of industrial sectors, with a particular focus on the consideration of human aspects, this book provides a definition of all the fundamental notions associated with risks and risk management, as well as clearly placing the discipline of risk analysis within the broader context of risk management processes.
The author begins by presenting a certain number of basic concepts, followed by the general principle of risk analysis. He then moves on to examine the ISO31000 standard, which provides a specification for the implementation of a risk management approach. The ability to represent the information we use is crucial, so the representation of knowledge, covering both information concerning the risk occurrence mechanism and details of the system under scrutiny, is also considered. The different analysis methods are then presented, firstly for the identification of risks, then for their analysis in terms of cause and effect, and finally for the implementation of safety measures.
Concrete examples are given throughout the book and the methodology and method can be applied to various fields (industry, health, organization, technical systems).
Contents
Part 1. General Concepts and Principles
1. Introduction.
2. Basic Notions.
3. Principles of Risk Analysis Methods.
4. The Risk Management Process (ISO31000).
Part 2. Knowledge Representation
5. Modeling Risk.
6. Measuring the Importance of a Risk.
7. Modeling of Systems for Risk Analysis.
Part 3. Risk Analysis Method
8. Preliminary Hazard Analysis.
9. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis.
10. Deviation Analysis Using the HAZOP Method.
11. The Systemic and Organized Risk Analysis Method.
12. Fault Tree Analysis.
13. Event Tree and Bow–Tie Diagram Analysis.
14. Human Reliability Analysis.
15. Barrier Analysis and Layer of Protection Analysis.
Part 4. Appendices
Appendix 1. Occupational Hazard Checklists.
Appendix 2. Causal Tree Analysis.
Appendix 3. A Few Reminders on the Theory of Probability.
Appendix 4. Useful Notions in Reliability Theory.
Appendix 5. Data Sources for Reliability.
Appendix 6. A Few Approaches for System Modelling.
Appendix 7. CaseStudy: Chemical Process.
Appendix 8. XRisk Software.
About the Authors
Jean–Marie Flaus is Professor at Joseph Fourier University in Grenoble, France.
Specificaties
Inhoudsopgave
<p>PART 1. GENERAL CONCEPTS AND PRINCIPLES 1</p>
<p>Chapter 1. Introduction 3</p>
<p>1.1. What is risk management? 3</p>
<p>1.2. Nature of risks 4</p>
<p>1.3. Evolution of risk management 6</p>
<p>1.4. Aims of this book 12</p>
<p>Chapter 2. Basic Notions 13</p>
<p>2.1. Formalization of the notion of risk 13</p>
<p>2.2. Hazard and sources of hazard 16</p>
<p>2.3. Stakes and targets 17</p>
<p>2.4. Vulnerability and resilience 18</p>
<p>2.5. Undesirable events and scenarios 18</p>
<p>2.6. Accidents and incidents 20</p>
<p>2.7. Safety 20</p>
<p>2.8. Likelihood, probability and frequency 21</p>
<p>2.9. Severity and intensity 22</p>
<p>2.10. Criticality 23</p>
<p>2.11. Reducing risk: prevention, protection and barriers 23</p>
<p>2.12. Risk analysis and risk management 25</p>
<p>2.13. Inductive and deductive approaches 26</p>
<p>2.14. Known risks and emerging risks 27</p>
<p>2.15. Individual and societal risks 27</p>
<p>2.16. Acceptable risk 28</p>
<p>2.17. The ALARP and ALARA principles 29</p>
<p>2.18. Risk maps 31</p>
<p>Chapter 3. Principles of Risk Analysis Methods 33</p>
<p>3.1. Introduction 33</p>
<p>3.2. Categories of targets and damages 35</p>
<p>3.3. Classification of sources and undesirable events 36</p>
<p>3.4. Causes of technical origin 40</p>
<p>3.5. Causes linked to the natural or manmade environment 46</p>
<p>3.6. Human and organizational factors 46</p>
<p>Chapter 4. The Risk Management Process (ISO31000) 53</p>
<p>4.1. Presentation 53</p>
<p>4.2. ISO31000 standard 55</p>
<p>4.3. Implementation: the risk management process 61</p>
<p>PART 2. KNOWLEDGE REPRESENTATION 71</p>
<p>Chapter 5. Modeling Risk 73</p>
<p>5.1. Introduction 73</p>
<p>5.2. Degradation flow models 74</p>
<p>5.3. Causal modeling 77</p>
<p>5.4. Modeling dynamic aspects 87</p>
<p>5.5. Summary 90</p>
<p>Chapter 6. Measuring the Importance of a Risk 93</p>
<p>6.1. Introduction 93</p>
<p>6.2. Assessing likelihood 96</p>
<p>6.3. Assessment of severity 102</p>
<p>6.4. Risk assessment 109</p>
<p>6.5. Application to the case of occupational risks 113</p>
<p>6.6. Application to the case of industrial risks 118</p>
<p>Chapter 7. Modeling of Systems for Risk Analysis 123</p>
<p>7.1. Introduction 123</p>
<p>7.2. Systemic or process modeling 126</p>
<p>7.3. Functional modeling 128</p>
<p>7.4. Structural modeling 131</p>
<p>7.5. Structuro–functional modeling 134</p>
<p>7.6. Modeling the behavior of a system 137</p>
<p>7.7. Modeling human tasks 140</p>
<p>7.8. Choosing an approach 145</p>
<p>7.9. Relationship between the system model and the risk model 146</p>
<p>PART 3. RISK ANALYSIS METHODS 151</p>
<p>Chapter 8. Preliminary Hazard Analysis 153</p>
<p>8.1. Introduction 153</p>
<p>8.2. Implementation of the method 155</p>
<p>8.3. Model–driven PHA 165</p>
<p>8.4. Variations of PHA 166</p>
<p>8.5. Examples of application 169</p>
<p>8.6. Summary 175</p>
<p>Chapter 9. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis 179</p>
<p>9.1. Introduction 179</p>
<p>9.2. Key concepts 181</p>
<p>9.3. Implementation of the method 187</p>
<p>9.4. Model–based analysis 195</p>
<p>9.5. Limitations of the FMEA 197</p>
<p>9.6. Examples 198</p>
<p>Chapter 10. Deviation Analysis Using the HAZOP Method 201</p>
<p>10.1. Introduction 201</p>
<p>10.2. Implementation of the HAZOP method 201</p>
<p>10.3. Limits and connections with other methods 208</p>
<p>10.4. Model–based analysis 209</p>
<p>10.5. Application example 210</p>
<p>Chapter 11. The Systemic and Organized Risk Analysis Method 211</p>
<p>11.1. Introduction 211</p>
<p>11.2. Implementation of part A 214</p>
<p>11.3. Implementing part B. 224</p>
<p>11.4. Conclusion 228</p>
<p>Chapter 12. Fault Tree Analysis 229</p>
<p>12.1. Introduction 229</p>
<p>12.2. Method description 230</p>
<p>12.3. Useful notions 231</p>
<p>12.4. Implementation of the method 234</p>
<p>12.5. Qualitative and quantitative analysis 237</p>
<p>12.6. Connection with the reliability diagram 242</p>
<p>12.7. Model–based approach 243</p>
<p>12.8. Examples 244</p>
<p>12.9. Common cause failure analysis 247</p>
<p>Chapter 13. Event Tree and Bow–Tie Diagram Analysis 253</p>
<p>13.1. Event tree 253</p>
<p>13.2. Bow–tie diagram 259</p>
<p>Chapter 14. Human Reliability Analysis 263</p>
<p>14.1. Introduction 263</p>
<p>14.2. The stages of a probabilistic analysis of human reliability 267</p>
<p>14.3. Human error classification 269</p>
<p>14.4. Analysis and quantification of human errors 274</p>
<p>14.5. The SHERPA method 278</p>
<p>14.6. The HEART method 280</p>
<p>14.7. The THERP method 282</p>
<p>14.8. The CREAM method 288</p>
<p>14.9. Assessing these methods 291</p>
<p>Chapter 15. Barrier Analysis and Layer of Protection Analysis 293</p>
<p>15.1. Choice of barriers 293</p>
<p>15.2. Barrier classification 295</p>
<p>15.3. Barrier analysis based on energy flows 297</p>
<p>15.4. Barrier assessment 299</p>
<p>15.5. Safety instrumented systems 301</p>
<p>15.6. The LOPA method 307</p>
<p>PART 4. APPENDICES 319</p>
<p>Appendix 1. Occupational Hazard Checklists 321</p>
<p>Appendix 2. Causal Tree Analysis 327</p>
<p>Appendix 3. A Few Reminders on the Theory of Probability 329</p>
<p>Appendix 4. Useful Notions in Reliability Theory 335</p>
<p>Appendix 5. Data Sources for Reliability 341</p>
<p>Appendix 6. A Few Approaches for System Modelling 347</p>
<p>Appendix 7. Case Study: Chemical Process 355</p>
<p>Appendix 8. XRisk Software 361</p>
<p>Bibliography 363</p>
<p>Index 369</p>