Modelling Non-Stationary Economic Time Series

PART 1: INTRODUCTION: COINTEGRATION, ECONOMIC EQUILIBRIUM AND THE LONG RUN PART 2: UNIVARIATE AND SINGLE EQUATION METHODS Introduction Non-Stationarity Univariate Statistical Time Series Models and Non-Stationarity Testing for Non-Stationarity in Single Series Conclusion PART 3: RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN NON-STATIONARITY TIME SERIES Introduction Equilibrium and Equilibrium Correction Cointegration and Equilibrium Regression Amongst Cointegrated Variables Conclusion PART 4: MULTIVARIATE TIME SERIES APPROACH TO COINTEGRATION Introduction The VMA, the VAR and the VECM VAR - Based Tests of Cointegration The Smith-McMillan-Yoo Form Johansen's VAR Representation of Cointegration Johansen's Approach to Testing for Cointegration in Systems Tests of Cointegration in VAR Models Alternative Representations PART 5: EXOGENEITY AND IDENTIFICATION An Introduction to Exogeneity Identification Exogeneity and Identification Empirical Examples Conclusion PART 6: FURTHER TOPICS IN THE ANALYSIS OF NON-STATIONARY TIME SERIES Introduction Inference and Estimation When Series Are Not I(1) Forecasting in Cointegrated Systems Models with Short-Run Dynamics Induced by Expectations Conclusion PART 7: CONCLUSION Approximation Alternative Methods Structural Breaks Last Comments Notes Appendices References Index