Challenges of a Changing Earth

I Opening.- 1 Opening Address.- 2 Challenges of a Changing Earth.- References.- II Achievements and Challenges: Part IIa Food, Land, Water, and Oceans.- 3 Toward Integrated Land-Change Science: Advances in 1.5 Decades of Sustained International Research on Land-Use and Land-Cover Change.- 3.1Trends.- 3.2 Causes.- 3.3 Model-Methods.- 3.4 Summary and Observations.- References.- 4 Climate Variability and Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics: Implications for Sustainability.- 4.1 Introduction.- 4.2 Climate Effects on Marine Ecosystems.- 4.3 Implications for Sustainability.- References.- 5 Food in the 21st Century: Global Climate of Disparities.- 5.1 Food in the 21st Century: Global Climate of Disparities.- 5.2 The Critical Role of Knowledge.- 5.3 Environment and Sustainable Development.- 5.4 Global Environmental Change.- 5.5 Global Agro-Ecological Assessment.- 5.6 Global AEZ Findings.- 5.7 Global Warming and Climate Change.- 5.8 Impact of Climate Change on Worldwide Cereal Production.- 5.9 Food Security and Climate Change.- 5.10 Climate Change Impact: Fairness and Equity?.- 5.11 Concluding Remark.- References.- 6 Equity Dimensions of Dam-Based Water Resources Development: Winners and Losers.- 6.1 Introduction.- 6.2 Why is Equity Relevant in River Basin Development Contexts? An Illustration from the Senegal River.- 6.3 Role of Dams in Water Resources Allocation.- 6.4 Addressing Equity Dimensions of Dam-Based Water Resources Development.- 6.4.1 The Concept of Equity.- 6.4.2 Ideas for Improving the Equity Performance of Dam Projects.- 6.5 Conclusions.- References.- IIb Out of Breath: Air Quality in the 21st Century.- 7 Atmospheric Chemistry in the “Anthropocene”.- 8 Fires, Haze and Acid Rain: The Social and Political Framework of Air Pollution in ASEAN and Asia.- 8.0 Introduction: Air Pollution and Asia in Context.- 8.1 Part 1: The Problem in Perspective.- 8.1.1 The Haze: Summary of a Recurring Disaster.- 8.1.2 Northeast Asian Acid Rain: The Smog of GrowthY35.- 8.2 Part 2: International Principles and Practice.- 8.2.1 International Law and Practice in Other Regions.- 8.2.2 The ASEAN Way and Environmental Cooperation.- 8.2.3 Cooperation in Northeast Asia.- 8.3 Part 3: Assessing and Improving Regional Cooperation on the Environment.- 8.3.1 Assessment and Prospects for Improvement.- 8.3.2 How to Improve ASEAN?.- 8.3.3 Northeast Asian Cooperation.- 8.4 Conclusion: Strengthening the Social and Political Frameworks.- General References.- Specific References.- IIc Managing Planetary Metabolism? The Global Carbon Cycle.- 9 Carbon and the Science-Policy Nexus: The Kyoto Challenge.- 9.1 The Global Carbon Cycle.- 9.2 Human Perturbation of the Carbon Cycle.- 9.3 The Terrestrial Sink.- 9.4 Location of the Terrestrial Sink.- 9.5 Variability of the Terrestrial Sink.- 9.6 Origin of the Terrestrial Sink.- 9.7 The Future of the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle.- References.- 10 Industry Response to the CO2 Challenge.- 10.1 Introduction.- 10.2 The Energy Context.- 10.3 The Industry Response.- 10.3.1 Reducing GHG Emissions.- 10.3.2 Future Innovations.- 10.3.3 Renewable Energy.- 10.3.4 Transport Fuels.- 10.4 Relations between Business and the Scientific Community.- 10.5 Summary of the Key Points.- IId Summary: Global Change and the Challenge for the Future.- 11 Global Change and the Challenge for the Future.- III Advances in Understanding: Part IIIa Global Biogeochemistry: Understanding the Metabolic System of the Planet.- 12 Ocean Biogeochemistry: A Sea of Change.- 12.1 Introduction.- 12.2 The Oceanic Carbon Cycle.- 12.3 Ocean Time-Series Programmes.- 12.4 Summary.- References.- 13 The Past, Present and Future of Carbon on Land.- 13.1 What Controls the Behaviour of Biospheric Carbon?.- 13.2 The Carbon Cycle is Constrained by Other Elemental Cycles.- 13.3 The Nitrogen-Carbon Link.- 13.4 Do Land Ecosystems Retain Nitrogen Deposited From the Air?.- 13.5 The Phosphorus-Nitrogen Link.- 13.6 The Carbon Cycle During the Past 420 Thousand Years.- References.- 14 Can New Institutions Solve Atmospheric Problems? Confronting Acid Rain, Ozone Depletion and Climate Change.- 14.1 Does the Regime Have Appropriate Behavioural Mechanisms?.- 14.2 Has the Regime Given Rise to a Robust Social Practice?.- 14.3 Does the Regime Have a Sensitive Steering System?.- 14.4 Implications for the Climate Regime.- References.- IIIb Land-Ocean Interactions: Regional-Global Linkages.- 15 Emissions from the Oceans to the Atmosphere, Deposition from the Atmosphere to the Oceans and the Interactions Between Them.- 15.1 Atmospheric Inputs to the Oceans.- 15.1.1 Nitrogen.- 15.1.2 Iron.- 15.2 Emissions from the Ocean to the Atmosphere.- 15.3 Interacting Cycles — the Challenge for the Future.- References.- 16 The Impact of Dams on Fisheries: Case of the Three Gorges Dam.- 16.1 The Effect of Dams on Deltas and Estuaries.- 16.2 The Case of the Three Gorges Dam.- 16.3 Threat to Other Shelves.- References.- 17 Global Change in the Coastal Zone: The Case of Southeast Asia.- 17.1 Where is the Coastal Zone and Why Southeast Asia?.- 17.2 Pressures on the Coastal Zone: Population and a Resource-Dependent Economy.- References.- IIIc The Climate System: Prediction, Change and Variability.- 18 Climate Change Fore and Aft: Where on Earth Are We Going?.- 19 Climate Change — Past, Present and Future: A Personal Perspective.- 19.1 Lessons from the Past.- 19.2 Global Temperature Change.- 19.3 The Future in Perspective of the Past.- References.- 20 The Changing Cryosphere: Impacts of Global Warming in the High Latitudes.- 20.1 What Is the Cryosphere and How Does It Contribute to Global Climate Change?.- 20.2 What Is the Empirical Evidence of Climate Change in the High Latitudes?.- 20.3 Impacts of Global Warming in the High Latitudes.- 21 The Coupled Climate System: Variability and Predictability.- 21.1 Introduction.- 21.2 Seasonal to Interannual Climate Variability.- 21.3 Decadal Climate Variability.- 21.4 Detection and Attribution of Climate Change.- IIId Hot Spots of Land-Use Change and the Climate System: A Regional or Global Concern.- 22 Hot Spots of Land-Use Change and the Climate System: A Regional or Global Concern?.- References.- 23 Africa: Greening of the Sahara.- 23.1 Africa: A Hot Spot of Nonlinear Atmosphere-Vegetation Interaction.- 23.2 The African Wet Period.- 23.3 Abrupt Changes in North Africa.- 23.4 Will North Africa Become Green Again in the Near Future?.- 23.5 Outlook.- Acknowledgements.- References.- 24 The Role of Large-Scale Vegetation and Land Use in the Water Cycle and Climate in Monsoon Asia.- 24.1 The Asian Monsoon As a Huge Water Cycling System.- 24.2 Atmospheric Water Cycle over Monsoon Asia and the Eurasian Continent.- 24.3 Is Monsoon Rainfall Decreasing? The Impact of Deforestation on the Water Cycle in Thailand.- 24.4 Do Water-Fed Rice Paddy Fields Increase Rainfall in Monsoon Asia?.- 24.5 A Hydro-Climate Memory Effect of the Taiga-Permafrost System in Siberia.- References.- 25 Can Human-Induced Land-Cover Change Modify the Monsoon System?.- 25.1.- 25.2.- 25.3.- 25.4.- 25.5.- References.- 26 The Amazon Basin and Land-Cover Change: A Future in the Balance?.- 26.1 Land-Use Change.- 26.2 Impacts on the Carbon Cycle.- 26.3 Impacts on the Atmosphere.- 26.4 Impacts on Water Chemistry.- 26.5 The Future.- Acknowledgements.- References.- IV Looking to the Future: Part IVa Simulating and Observing the Earth System.- 27 Virtual Realities of the Past, Present and Future.- 27.1 What Are General Circulation Models (GCMs)?.- 27.2 How Do We Use Climate Models?.- 27.3 How Well Do Models Simulate Present Climate?.- 27.4 How Well Do Models Predict Past Climate Change?.- 27.5 What Are the Predictions for the Future?.- 27.6 What Developments Are Likely in the Future?.- 27.7 How Can We Deal with Uncertainty in Predictions?.- 27.8 Concluding Remarks.- References.- 28 Coping with Earth System Complexity and Irregularity.- 28.1 The Challenge.- 28.2 Great Cognitive Barriers.- 28.3 Breaches and Bypasses to Understanding.- 28.4 Adaptive Planetary Stewardship.- References.- 29 Simulating and Observing the Earth System: Summary.- 29.1 Earth System.- 29.2 Simulators.- 29.3 Observations.- 29.4 The Way Forward.- IVb Does the Earth System Need Biodiversity?.- 30 Marine Biodiversity: Why We Need It in Earth System Science.- Reference.- 31 Does Biodiversity Matter to Terrestrial Ecosystem Processes and Services?.- 31.1 Is Biodiversity Important to the Functioning of the Earth System?.- 31.2 What is Biodiversity?.- 31.3 The Most Abundant Plants Are Important for Ecosystem Functioning.- 31.4 The Number of Functionally Similar Species Is Important in Facing Environmental Change.- 31.5 Implications for Conservation and Sustainable Management.- 32 Biodiversity Loss and the Maintenance of Our Life-Support System.- 32.1 How Does Biodiversity Affect Ecosystem Functioning at Small Scales?.- 32.2 Scaling Up in Time: Biodiversity As Insurance Against Environmental Changes.- 32.3 Scaling Up in Space: Biodiversity Effects at Landscape and Regional Scales.- 32.4 Conclusions.- References.- IVc Can Technology Spare the Planet?.- 33 Maglevs and the Vision of St. Hubert - Or the Great Restoration of Nature: Why and How.- 33.1 Introduction.- 33.2 The Vision of St. Hubert.- 33.3 Our Triune Brain.- 33.4 Sparing Sea Life.- 33.5 Sparing Farmland.- 33.6 Sparing Forests.- 33.7 Sparing Pavement.- 33.8 Cardinal Resolutions.- References.- 34 Industrial Transformation: Exploring System Change in Production and Consumption.- 34.1 Human Choice on Issues Involving a Time Scale of Decades to Centuries.- 34.2 Transformation: Why, How Does It Work and What Are the Options.- 34.3 From Green Products to System Transformation.- 34.4 Five Major Foci for Transformation Research.- 34.5 International Cooperation.- 34.6 In Summary.- References.- 35 Will Technology Spare the Planet?.- References.- IVd Towards Global Sustainability.- 36 Challenges and Road Blocks for Local and Global Sustainability.- 36.1 Advances.- 36.2 International Instruments: Urgency of Goals and Synergies.- 36.3 The Biodiversity Convention.- 36.4 The Climate Change Convention.- 36.5 Synergies.- 36.6 New Inputs.- 37 Research Systems for a Transition Toward Sustainability.- Acknowledgements.- References.- 38 Summary: Towards Global Sustainability.- IVe Closing Session.- 39 Closing Address.- 39.1 Science and Policy.- 39.2 Prospects for the Climate Change Negotiations.- 40 The Amsterdam Declaration on Global Change.