Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment

Preface to ASA-SIAM Edition; Preface; List of Figures; List of Tables; List of Examples; Part I. Introduction to Expert Judgment. 1. Introduction; 2. Common Questions and Pitfalls Concerning Expert Judgment; 3. Background on Human Problem Solving and Bias; Part II. Elicitation Procedures. 4. Selecting the Question Areas and Questions; 5. Refining the Questions; 6. Selecting and Motivating the Experts; 7. Selecting the Components of Elicitation; 8. Designing and Tailoring the Elicitation; 9. Practicing the Elicitation and Training the Project Personnel; 10. Conducting the Elicitation; Part III. Analysis Procedures. 11. Introducing the Techniques for Analysis of Expert Judgment Data; 12. Initial Look at the Data_The First Analyses; 13. Understanding the Data Base Structure; 14. Correlation and Bias Detection; 15. Model Formation; 16. Combining Responses_Aggregation; 17. Characterizing Uncertainties; 18. Making Inferences; Appendix A. SAATY; Appendix B. MCBETA; Appendix C. EMPIRICAL; Appendix D. BOOT; Glossary of Expert Judgment Terms; References; Index.